Detailansicht
Financial Crisis Forecasting
Christopher North
Art der Arbeit
Masterarbeit
Universität
Universität Wien
Fakultät
Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Betreuer*in
Erich Streissler
DOI
10.25365/thesis.27974
URN
urn:nbn:at:at-ubw:1-29875.76708.521962-1
Link zu u:search
(Print-Exemplar eventuell in Bibliothek verfügbar)
Abstracts
Abstract
(Deutsch)
Die Haupthypothese meiner Masterarbeit ist, dass Amerika in den nächsten zwei-drei
Jahren einen wirtschaftlichen Abschwung erfahren wird. Diese These wird mit zahlreichen
Quellen, welche von wirtschaftlichen Experten verfasst wurden, untermauert. Weiters
werden die Auswirkungen einer solchen Krise im Addendum untersucht.
Diese Masterarbeit beginnt mit der Untersuchung der fünft größten Wirtschaftskrisen der
letzten 100 Jahre, um die wichtigste Variable zu finden welche eine solche Krise
verursacht. Folgend wird untersucht ob diese Variablen in der heutigen Wirtschaft noch
vorhanden sind.
Abstract
(Englisch)
The financial meltdown and economic instability in 2008 revealed our need for a better and more comprehensive analysis of our economic system. Vast amounts of information have been published since and processed to determine why such a devastating crisis was allowed to happen, whether it will happen again, and if so when it will happen next. The purpose of this paper is to attempt to answer exactly these questions and make an informed decision regarding the future economic viability of America. An in depth look into the previous financial crisis will be undertaken to ascertain any business cycle trends which could provide useful information for extrapolation. This paper will also analyse the current methods in practice today which are used in forecasting and apply these to America’s current situation. As this is obviously an extremely large and dynamic variable, a focus on America’s current and short term future will serve as the foundation for this paper alongside an evaluation of America’s current macro-economic policies, including government spending and the strength of the dollar in world markets.
In order to fully appreciate this topic, a comprehensive understanding of how a financial crisis arises is essential. Although it is possible to anticipate the short term potential industries which might ignite a crisis, this paper will not cover individual sectors extensively, but will instead attempt to correctly identify economic drivers that can cause economic instability. In this sense, an investigation into some of the potential drivers will be conducted, such as the money supply, investment trends, market valuations and the role of banks and governments in economic policy. Complimenting these assumptions, statistical data regarding the performance of large businesses prior to a crisis will serve empirical testing.
The main hypothesis of this paper is the prediction that America will experience a large downturn within the next 2-3 years. To attempt to prove this hypothesis, thorough reasoning
will be supported by data from numerous sources and books written by experts in their respective fields. A prognosis of the effect of such a crisis will be explored as an addendum.
To aid the extraction of the most predominant variables which may cause a crisis, this paper will begin by exploring 5 major crises in the last 100 years, and will determine whether these
traits/indicators are present in the economy today.
Schlagwörter
Schlagwörter
(Englisch)
Economic forecasting financial crises population economics
Schlagwörter
(Deutsch)
Wirtschaftsabschwung Finanzielle Krisen
Autor*innen
Christopher North
Haupttitel (Englisch)
Financial Crisis Forecasting
Paralleltitel (Deutsch)
Vorhersehen finanzieller Krisen- Gruende, Effekte und systemische Faktoren die einen Einfluss auf zukuenftige finanzielle Krisen haben
Paralleltitel (Englisch)
Financial Crisis Forecasting - Causes, Effects and Systemic Factors Influencing Financial Crises
Publikationsjahr
2013
Umfangsangabe
145
Sprache
Englisch
Beurteiler*in
Erich Streissler
Klassifikationen
85 Betriebswirtschaft > 85.00 Betriebswirtschaft: Allgemeines ,
85 Betriebswirtschaft > 85.99 Betriebswirtschaft: Sonstiges
AC Nummer
AC10813727
Utheses ID
24993
Studienkennzahl
UA | 066 | 914 | |